13 thoughts on the blue wave washing over America
Good news, but the real battle lies ahead
Here are 13 thoughts on yesterday’s elections:
The results are uniformly positive news for Democrats. Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger won the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia by double-digit margins, Zohran Mamdani drove record turnout in New York City, Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot was approved in California, and Democratic judges were reconfirmed on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. It was blue all the way down.
Drawing out the national political implications of off-year elections can be tricky. It has generally been the case recently that Republicans struggle in years without a presidential election but then perform much better in presidential years. The reason for this is that Donald Trump’s Republican Party attracts a coalition of lower-propensity voters - lesser-educated voters and young men - who aren’t really that interested in politics. They will come out and vote when Trump is on the ballot but don’t pay enough attention to vote the rest of the time.
But even with this caveat, you would clearly much rather be the Democrats than the Republicans right now. Trump’s victory in 2024 was driven by unusual gains among young men, voters of color, and other traditionally Democratic-leaning groups. In New Jersey and Virginia, those groups stampeded back to the Democrats. Some of the biggest swings of the night were in heavily Hispanic counties, where Sherrill and Spanberger outperformed not just Harris in 2024 but also the previous Democratic governor candidates in 2021. Young men also went blue.
The story in the suburbs was also very encouraging. There was never really much chance of Spanberger losing in Virginia because a large chunk of the state’s voters are government workers living in parts of northern Virginia which are suburbs of Washington, D.C. These voters tend not to love Trump, particularly when they’re on furlough during a government shutdown. But both Spanberger and Sherrill also performed well in suburban areas without the peculiar dynamic caused by the presence of large numbers of government workers.
It’s also notable that they did this in large part by trying to make the elections referendums on Trump. Spanberger and Sherrill constantly tried to tie their opponent to Trump because they made a bet that he and his regime are unpopular. They seem to have been proven correct.
Much of the attention and commentary this week will be focused on Mamdani. He is an electric communicator who achieved something amazing in the politics of New York City. He came out of nowhere, outside of the city’s regular political clans, and built something that can truly be described as a movement. He now has the potential to become a progressive superstar.
But he also inspired an unusually large and hostile amount of opposition. Mamdani won just over a million votes, which is about 250,000 more than Eric Adams did in his victorious 2021 campaign. But Andrew Cuomo, Mamdani’s main rival, notched about 850,000 votes, which is also 100,000 more than Adams’ victorious campaign! The high turnout story here is hence not just one about enthusiasm for Mamdani; it’s also about opposition to him. He polarized and energized both sides of the electorate, much as Trump does (which is not to say the comparison goes any further).
The next chapter of Mamdani’s story is still to be written. It’s not that long ago that another young progressive became mayor of New York, was hailed as a hero, and then quickly ran aground on the realities of governing. Bill De Blasio floundered because delivering on progressive policies from the mayor’s office is very difficult. At the same time, the conservative fear-mongering about how De Blasio would destroy the city by letting crime spiral out of control and causing businesses to leave didn’t come true either. In many respects, Mamdani’s tenure will probably end up more “normal” (which is to say, frustrating and inconclusive) than not.
But there will be one big difference, which is that the Trump White House is going to try extremely hard to make Mamdani the national face of the Democratic Party. This will likely mean targeting New York with punitive measures, such as withholding federal funding or dispatching federal forces or National Guard to intervene in the city. The goal will be not only to make a Muslim socialist one of the most recognizable Democrats in the country, but also to cause chaos and splits within the Democratic coalition. Moderate Dems are already wary of Mamdani, and New York Governor Kathy Hochul needs to win election statewide - meaning, including less liberal areas than NYC - next year. It’s not going to take much to get progressives and moderates at each other’s throats.
Newsom’s redistricting victory in California is also a big story. The state will now redraw some of its Congressional boundaries to be more favorable to Democrats, a move taken in retaliation for Texas tipping its own scales in favor of the GOP. Although the whole scenario is depressing, this was the right thing to do given the circumstances. Newsom will also be hoping that this will raise his own profile as a national figure, and he’s right. He still has a lot of baggage which will drag him down in 2028, but his aggressive approach is something that other Democrats can learn from.
Does this mean Democrats are out of the doldrums, or that America is saved? No and no. Last night showed the power of the party’s big tent. It fielded a magnetic socialist in New York City and a former-CIA-officer-turned-suburban-mom in Virginia. It showed that the Republican coalition has major cracks which can be exploited. And it showed that it is capable of putting together a winning message.
But midterms and presidential elections are more difficult. In national elections, you need to worry about your national brand, and the socialist-to-CIA-officer spectrum (not to mention the socialist-to-suburban-mom spectrum) becomes more difficult to straddle. Choices lay ahead about which way to pivot, and those choices will not be easy.
At the same time, it’s a safe assumption that Trump and the GOP is not just going to take these shellackings lying down. They have proven willing to use the coercive power of the state to tip the political balance before, and they should be expected to do so again. The real battle still lies ahead.