20 thoughts on Trump's first 100 days

That's one thought per five days!

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Today marks the end of Trump’s “100 days”, which is traditionally a time to take stock and consider what impact an administration is having. So here goes - twenty thoughts on Trump’s first 100 days:

1. Trump’s “100 days” has probably been one of the most impactful since the first 100 days of Franklin Roosevelt, which originally gave rise to the idea that this was one of the most meaningful periods of a presidency. But whereas FDR was responding to a crisis and trying to save democracy, Trump took a situation which was stable and safe and created a crisis in order to undermine democracy.

2. The United States is in such chaos right now that it can be hard to remember that six months ago, it mostly was not. The economy was strong and growing. Its international partnerships were stable. It was still the destination of choice for the world’s best and brightest. It possessed enviable scientific research institutions. Donald Trump was probably ultimately on his way to jail, deterring future authoritarians.

3. I’ve often comforted myself with the thought that an authoritarian takeover in the United States would almost definitely fail because it is a rich country. Fascism almost always thrives where there is a sense of chaos and the fascist leader is able to depict themselves as the only one able to provide stability. While I don’t think that Trump is smart enough to be doing this on purpose, I now worry that he is creating the chaotic conditions in which such a claim might become plausible.

4. On the other hand, I’m not sure that this particular page of the fascist playbook works if you are the one who created the chaos in the first place. Trump’s political capital and popularity are falling, not rising. He is seen as the problem, not the solution.

5. But that’s not sufficient to stop him. Public opinion only indirectly affects the behavior of the elite actors and institutions - members of Congress, Supreme Court justices, civil servants - who will ultimately have to be brave and coordinated enough to stop Trump. I trust the American public to reject Trump and Trumpism if given a choice in a binary election, even if it were held today, after only a 100 day reminder of what Trump’s governance is like. But the election will be held in nearly four years, not today. I worry about what he will accomplish in the meantime.

6. After the Civil War, the United States went through a process called Reconstruction - a series of constitutional changes and political purges designed to destroy the Slave Power once and for all and to put the country on a more durable footing. It is clear that something similar will be necessary after this administration, too.

7. Constitutionally, the changes will have to focus on limiting the power of the presidency. The American presidency has become like a loaded gun lying on a table, able to be picked up and used in an act of national self-destruction at any moment. Part of the problem is that old emergency laws like the Alien Enemies Act, which Trump has abused in his deportations, are still on the books. They need to be taken off them.

8. But a far bigger problem is that the courts have interpreted the Constitution as giving presidents virtually unlimited power. They have done so mostly in the name of “national security” - the idea that vast and concentrated power is necessary for the president to defend the country in an era of nuclear weapons and porous borders. But Trump shows that the presidency itself, when in the wrong hands, has become just as dangerous of a threat to national security as any foreign entity. Old checks and balances need to be reasserted and new ones created.

9. But such a system is still likely to break down without changes to the country’s underlying political culture. Trump has shown that constitutions are ultimately only bits of paper - powerful bits, to be sure, but ones that can be circumvented with enough will. There is a sense in which Trump and MAGA must exhaust themselves, must become anathema to so many people, that their threat loses its plausibility. An authoritarian takeover in the American system could only work in a durable fashion with a large degree of public support. Liberals have spent ten years hoping to be saved by the law and the constitution, but ultimately they have to be saved by the people.

10. Here, Trump has been his own worst enemy. The consequences of his attack on the economy have barely begun to be felt, but they will be cataclysmic for his popularity.

11. Trump has always been a weak man pretending to be a strongman. Not only will he not provide the purported fruits of strongman rule - growth and stability - but he is also just as weak as ever as an administrator and government leader. He isn’t firing subordinates at the same rate as in his first term, but only because he has decided that doing so is a sign of weakness. His administration is still wracked with dysfunction, as we saw during the roll-out of his trade policy. This lack of discipline and focus has always held Trump back from implementing his agenda.

12. Trump’s skill at managing Congress also shows few signs of improvement. There is a myth that Trump is the ultimate deal-maker, but in reality he is very bad at making deals. Congressional Republicans are juggling a massive and divisive list of priorities and Trump is not giving them the leadership they need.

13. This matters because it limits his ability to give the GOP’s business wing what it wants - tax cuts and energy spending. Instead, he has given corporate America trade and immigration policies that will destroy its profits and crimp its labor supply. Sustaining an authoritarian takeover is much harder without the support or at least cowing of business, particularly in a country with a corporate class as wealthy as that of the United States.

14. Back to the idea of a new Reconstruction. Another key component of it must be people going to jail - lots of them. American presidents have typically shied away from imposing criminal penalties on their predecessors and the people who worked for them, mostly out of a desire to maintain “national unity” and avoid precedents that might be used against them. This timidity is one reason why presidential power has grown and grown without ever being hemmed in by accountability. This has to end.

15. The idea of sending lots of people to jail might seem fantastical and difficult to implement now, when a great deal of the damage that this administration can do still seems somewhat theoretical. I suspect that by the time the administration is over, it will seem towards the lenient end of their just desserts - not just to liberals but to most Americans.

16. It is fitting that Mark Carney’s re-election as Prime Minister of Canada was announced on day 100 of the Trump administration. Trump’s impact on the Canadian election has been a political earthquake, trashing the reputation of his perceived ally and sending Canadians to rally around the “establishment” figure. There is a good chance that we will see the same pattern elsewhere: decline in support for populist forces who are seen as associated with Trump.

17. Here again, Trump is his own worst enemy. Given the immense power of the United States and the tendency of every other country to try to appease it, there was a more moderate way for Trump to achieve a broadly Republican international agenda. Instead he is needlessly antagonizing allies like Canada and Denmark as part of a personal quest for dominance. He wants to be like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, a Big Man who is feared rather than respected. Few Europeans, especially nationalists, want to vote to be the victims of a Big Man. They want to vote to fight back.

18. We should never forget that the most serious potential consequence of a Trump presidency is a nuclear war. It’s not just that Trump has the red button, it’s that he is responsible for managing the relationships whose stability and predictability keep the world safe from atomic weapons. We must never make the mistake of thinking that other countries understand us, our leaders, or our political systems as we understand ourselves. We don’t know what theories are floating around Beijing or Moscow about what Trump is “really” up to, or whether he is really the one pulling the strings of his administration, or anything else. Uncertainty can lead to extremely bad choices, and those choices can get dangerous very quickly.

19. Perhaps this danger and uncertainty is the kick that Europe needs to get its act together and emerge as a new superpower, one capable of standing up for the values that the United States is abandoning. On the one hand, this time really does look different. On the other, I suspect that the ultimate result will be something more partial and less satisfying.

20. We who believe in these values and try to sustain them are currently exiles looking for a home. Some of us are fearful of setting foot on American soil, a situation we never imagined we would be in. We have become aware of how quickly things can turn, and how many faces the enemy has. We have to fight on regardless.

America Explained has grown a lot in the last 100 days, and I’m grateful to all of you for reading it and making it possible for me to pursue my passion. If you haven’t already please consider upgrading to a paid subscription in order to support the newsletter and help me buy the caffeine which makes it possible.