America and the Russian mutiny

Can the U.S. influence events in Moscow?

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For a while last Saturday, as tanks raced towards Moscow, it looked like we might be witnessing a pivotal day in modern history. Then, as suddenly as it started, the whole thing seemed to evaporate. Yevgeny Prigozhin reached a deal with Vladimir Putin, and over the next few days his troops left Rostov-on-Don and Prigozhin himself flew to Belarus. So far as I can tell, it seems that both Prigozhin and Putin backed down - Prigozhin from his desperate attempt to force change in Russian policy towards the war in Ukraine and the Wagner Group specifically, and Putin from his threat to treat Prigozhin as a traitor who must be eliminated. What has emerged from the situation seems to be not so much a new equilibrium as a transition to some new, as yet undetermined, stage of the struggle. Putin may try to punish Prigozhin, along with other dissenters, further, and Prigozhin may resist Russian attempts to dismantle his profitable empire.

This new phase of instability in Russian politics also raises both risks and opportunities for the United States. What we now know about how American officials reacted to the crisis gives early hints to how Washington will try to manage them.