I’m currently traveling in Vietnam, and over the next month or so I’m excited to write some columns about how this country’s history - and future - are tied up with that of the United States. Subscribe to make sure you don’t miss any of them. Read more of our 2024 coverage here.
Some months after the January 6th insurrection, someone with whom I had a past professional connection reached out to me inviting me to collaborate on future endeavors. This person informed me in the exchange that they were now working for a Republican congressman who voted to overturn the 2020 election result on the same day that a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol while announcing their intention to murder the Vice President and the Speaker of the House.
I informed this person where to get off, but the casual way that they expected me to just brush off who they were now working for has stuck with me ever since. Their boss was hardly a MAGA firebrand, but the way that the normie conservative movement has assimilated and excused January 6th and the larger movement of which it was a part has been legitimately shocking. And there’s no greater indication of that than the fact that they are on course to pick the chief instigator of the campaign to overthrow American democracy as their candidate for 2024 as well. I would have no part - however small - in perpetuating this normalization. Insurrectionists get no quarter from me.
I think a large part of the fear that is currently gripping Democrats is based on the seeming senseless nihilism of this Republican normalization. Things that defy reason are scary. So are things that overturn established norms and practices. Trump has created a feeling that anything is possible, and so his return to power seems possible too.
Another component of this fear - and I will have no compunction in discussing this throughout 2024 - are the weaknesses of Joe Biden as a candidate (we’ll get to his strengths in a minute). I say this as someone who was not a Biden naysayer in 2020, and who in fact was one of the few national commentators to openly back him from an early stage. I was aware of his weaknesses in 2020, as well, but he seemed like the best option. And he has subsequently exceeded my expectations, not only smashing Trump in 2020 and the Republicans in the 2022 midterms, but also passing one of the most significant legislative agendas in decades.
It would be foolish, however, to pretend that a president heading into re-election with a 40% approval rating and his 82nd birthday impending is the ideal candidate to win what might otherwise be America’s last free and fair election. The memory of 2016, when Trump narrowly beat a weak candidate, is seared too hard into my memory.
But on balance, I still think the Democrats are best off sticking with Biden. For one, a contested primary would be too bruising, and the result too uncertain, to try to replace him. But that’s not the only reason. The other big reason is that there’s cause to think that Biden can recreate the conditions of 2020 and prove the naysayers wrong - again.
Biden’s wins in 2020 and 2022 boiled down to two things: Trump/MAGA fatigue among the public, and a focus on fundamental rights and democracy. The opening speech of Biden’s campaign, delivered on January 6th at Valley Forge, showed that he plans to make these themes central to 2024 as well. He’ll hammer Trump as a threat to American democracy and a wannabe tyrant, elevating in the public consciousness the aspects of the Trump years which demonstrably turned off so many voters. He’ll also remind voters that Trump is at the forefront of the party which has stripped the right to an abortion from many women across America, generating a furious backlash even in red states. And he’ll relentlessly remind voters about January 6th, the day that Donald Trump led a movement to violently overturn the result of a democratic election.
What will make this attack so effective is that it will be unfolding at the same time that Trump is digging his own political grave. With luck, he’ll be dragged from court appearance to court appearance throughout 2024, providing voters with a real-time reminder of his criminal conduct. His public commentary on these trials is not likely to reassure anyone of his commitment to democracy and the rule of law. At the same time, he’ll be increasingly sounding off on every topic under the sun, pushing extreme and unpopular policies - like rounding up immigrants into deportation camps and imposing an inflationary 10% tariff on all imports.
Taken together, this should help to remind voters of what they hated the most about the Trump years - the fatigue of having him constantly dominating the news cycle and polarizing the country. The key to Trump’s partial political rehabilitation over the past few years has been keeping a low profile - he no longer tweets and stays largely out of the news unless forced into it by his legal troubles. Even so, he’s barely pulling even with Biden in most polls. Let me hazard a guess that 10 months of having him back in the limelight is not going to create a massive political shift in his favor.
Ultimately, presidential elections are about contrasts, which is why a measure like approval ratings cannot fully capture the state of public opinion. “What do you think of Joe Biden?” is a different question to “Do you want Joe Biden or Donald Trump to be president?”. And there are many reasons to think that if Biden and the Democrats keep drawing the contrast between the two in the same ways they have before, the answer to the second question will be just the same as it was in 2020. But buckle up - the journey to get that answer is going to be long and harrowing.