Donald Trump's campaign strategy is toast

Nasty Trump is coming back - but he's not really an election-winner

Earlier today I wrote this piece on what Kamala Harris has to do to win in November. Now it’s time to talk about what Donald Trump might do.

Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race is terrible news for Trump, who was the favorite to win this year’s election even before the debate. Biden had a number of weaknesses which neatly compensated for some of Trump’s, and he was also running a very low-energy campaign. The Trump campaign has been behaving like it thought its job was simple: mostly avoid making any waves and just let the fact that Biden is an unpopular incumbent drag him down to defeat. Biden’s disastrous debate performance made that job even easier. And while it’s not like he’s suddenly destined to lose, Trump now has to pivot to face an altogether more difficult challenge.

There’s already evidence that Trump is scared. He appears to be backing out of the September debate now that he would have to face Harris instead of Biden. He and his team will obviously take some time to digest the new situation they find themselves in. As they do, they’ll likely focus on four factors which Trump now has to contend with which he didn’t have to contend with before:

1. Trump is really old. He looks old. He often speaks incoherently. He’s a shadow of his 2016 self. After Biden’s withdrawal, he’s now the oldest presidential candidate in American history. In fact, he has many of the same age-related foibles which dragged down Biden - and with Biden no longer in the race and Trump’s opponent now a sprightly 59 years old, it’s much harder to hide;

2. Unlike Biden, Harris will actually campaign, and she will pump up the Democratic base. Younger voters and voters of color were souring on Biden even before the debate, and most Democrats were unenthusiastic about having Biden as their candidate. Democratic enthusiasm is now going to be much higher, and Harris will pump it up through constant campaigning. Trump keeps a fairly light schedule of campaign events, and Biden’s was even lighter - but Harris can barnstorm all year long;