Elections are still happening in America

But for how long?

Tomorrow is election day in the United States. It’s not as significant as the midterms will be next year, but it’s still going to give us some important insights into which way the winds are blowing.

The most high-profile race is the New York mayoral, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani looks poised to win. New York is such a blue city that typically winning the Democratic Party primary is all that matters, and Mamdani already did that. His victory is pretty widely expected.

But there are some other races that are going on which are arguably more important for figuring out future trends in national politics. Most importantly, there are gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. These always come the year after presidential elections, so it’s a time-honored tradition to rake over the tea leaves from them and make predictions about the future national picture. And I’ll have a post on Wednesday doing just that.

There’s also a whole bunch of other, less-noticed races going on, from local elections in Arizona and California to various special elections for state legislative offices. All in all it’s a typical picture of the panoply of democratic elections that America’s federal system produces - state and local contests galore, with citizens choosing everyone from governor to school board member.

It’s a beautiful thing, and despite all of the chaos of Trump’s second presidency, it is proceeding more or less like normal. And as potentially existential threats to American democracy are coming down the track, it’s worth dwelling for a moment on why that is.

Absent action by the Trump regime, then what’s probably going to happen in 2026 and 2028 is that Republicans will suffer massive electoral losses and lose control of the House of Representatives and the presidency, and perhaps the Senate.

The reason for this is fairly simple, and was previewed in Trump’s first administration. Trump is pretty bad at politics, he alienates most people except for his close base, and thermostatic public opinion in general leads voters to want change. There are some questions about whether Democrats can get their act together and present themselves as a viable alternative to Trump, but my base case is that they probably can.

The problem with this nice story is that the Trump regime knows that this is the most likely cause of events too. And so they are likely to try to write a different story.

And because they have no respect for the constitution or the rule of law, that could involve everything from mid-cycle gerrymandering to steal seats from Democrats in the House, to sending federal forces to disrupt elections or manipulate their outcome. The gerrymandering they’re already doing, which is extraordinary enough. But might they do the latter?

And if they might, why aren’t they doing it now?

Because what has been somewhat remarkable about the election campaigns which will culminate tomorrow is that the Trump regime has not done anything to try to steal them. The Democrat Abigail Spanberger is almost definitely going to become governor of Virginia, a state which is literally right next door to Washington, D.C. Yet no troops have descended on Richmond and I haven’t heard Trump talk about vote rigging or plan a ‘Stop the Steal’ rally.

This is the strange paradox of Trump’s America right now: an assault on many aspects of democracy, yet elections still continuing more or less as normal.

But I don’t think this means we should get complacent.

For a start, Republicans have not yet actually had to face major elections like this under this administration, and so they haven’t yet begun to get seriously panicked about their electoral chances. Attempts to carry out mid-cycle gerrymandering certainly show some concern about that, but they likely need a good hard shellacking to really get worried. For now, they might be encouraged by the unexpectedly tight polls in New Jersey and the slight improvements in their prospects in Virginia over the last week or so.

Secondly, these elections are low stakes. They’re not federal elections, meaning that national Republican figures are not that concerned about them. Trump quite likes having Democratic mayors and governors to act as his political foils and give him someone to fight battles with. His political team is eagerly anticipating Mamdani’s victory because they think that Mamdani becoming a prominent figure will be bad for the Democratic Party’s national brand overall.

It’s likely that when there’s a serious threat of Republicans suffering a huge blowout in 2026 or 2028 that the chances of the regime messing with elections will increase. Particularly in 2028, when Trump’s successor will probably be facing very steep odds to win the White House, we might see a repeat of 2020 - or more likely something much worse.

Thirdly, it makes sense strategically for the regime to keep its powder dry before then. Tearing up the constitution to keep Abigail Spanberger out of the Virginia governor’s mansion is likely to provoke an enormous backlash for minimal gains.

If Trump and the people around him are going to try a massive authoritarian crackdown on the electoral process, then that’s going to lead to a massive public and political battle. In order to win it, they need to be offering their supporters something that their supporters really want - say, four more years in the White House and the end of competitive national elections - not just a slightly better corporate tax rate in New Jersey.

That existential battle for the constitution and the future of national elections is likely coming. It’s a battle that the regime gives some signs of preparing for. Small-d democrats better prepare for it, too.

In the meantime, let’s observe the beauty of American democracy in action. If things go really badly, it may be one of the last chances we get.