Europe strikes back

Can the continent deter Trump's America?

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I’m just going to quote from this interesting piece in Politico about how some European countries are feeling more confident in their dealings with Trump of late:

President Donald Trump has spent the first three months of his second term imposing his will on the rest of the globe, telling longtime allies that they “don’t have the cards.”

But in capitals across Europe and elsewhere, debates are raging over the hands they could play.

Proposals under consideration range from minor irritants to extreme actions that could sever defense and economic relationships that have cemented alliances for nearly a century.

Those include finding alternative suppliers of military equipment and munitions from U.S.-based defense contractors, enacting stronger counter-tariffs, rolling back intellectual property protections for U.S. companies and lessening their reliance on American tech giants, according to conversations with more than two dozen government officials in Europe and Canada, many of whom were granted anonymity to describe high-level discussions they’re not authorized to speak about publicly.

The piece, though quite long, is worth reading in full.

The fact that these options are under consideration reveals a weak spot in Trump’s Europe strategy. On the one hand, he wants the continent to become self-reliant and to fend for itself. On the other, many U.S. companies benefit handsomely from European defense contracts - one reason why the U.S. has often discouraged the EU from developing its own defense industrial base in the past. Europe is also an important market for other types of American business and many European countries are supplies of key products and services.

The problem Trump has is that he is rapidly destroying the trust that this relationship is built on. It made sense for European countries to buy their defense platforms from the United States for so long as they thought the U.S. shared their geopolitical goals. Now they wonder what this pro-Putin administration might do if war breaks out between Europe and Russia. One of the most eyebrow-raising parts of the Politico story is that European officials are discussing the possibility that U.S.-sourced weapons might contain some sort of “kill switch” that stops their usage in scenarios that Washington doesn’t approve of. That’s a devastating loss of trust.

But it’s not like Europe has an incredibly strong hand either. At least for now, Europe cannot provide for its own defense without U.S. assistance. Working on the continent’s defense industrial base is a labor that will take many years. Even if European countries manage to overcome the divisions which have held them back in the past and set out on that course, it doesn’t mean that they can just blithely start antagonizing the U.S. more than strictly necessary in the here and now. As the weaker party in the dispute, they might want to think twice about escalating it too far.

Europe also faces a dangerous dilemma over energy. After the continent moved away from reliance on Russian gas, it created a new dependency on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The United States provided nearly half of the continent’s LNG imports in 2024, giving Washington a potent weapon to wield if it so wishes.

No-one doubts that Europe needs to stand up for itself - in fact, the Trump administration’s hostility might ultimately do the continent a favor if it leads to a new burst of integration and institution-creation.

You can already sense the strengthening of European identity and pride as citizens on the continent start to define themselves against Trump and what he stands for. No European government can afford to roll over in the face of Trump’s attacks, and nor should it. Even if the Democrats win in 2028 and President Gretchen Whitmer proclaims once again that “America is back”, Europe shouldn’t believe it. MAGA is now a permanent part of the American political spectrum, and Europe really does have to learn to stand on its own two feet.

But it’s also important not to go too far, too fast. New industries have to be created, new sources of energy have to be found, and new forms of cooperation and integration have to be sustained. And it all has to be done in a hostile geopolitical environment in which there is no longer any external guardian angel watching over Europe’s shoulders. That’s what true independence really means. It’s going to be hard work - harder probably than any other episode of post-war European integration. Caution is needed as much as boldness.

Thanks for reading America Explained. If you haven’t already, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription. This will enable you to read all of this post and access the full archive. It will also enable me to put more time and energy into this newsletter, something that I’m hoping to do in order to cover the new administration more thoroughly. If you’re already a paid subscriber, thanks for supporting independent media and making it possible to do what I do.