Gerrymandering goes nuclear

Texas's move is part of a depressing race to the bottom

Thanks for reading America Explained! Paid subscriptions are what keeps this newsletter a going concern, so please upgrade if you’re able to spare a few dollars or euros or whatever (I’m not picky!) a month to support independent journalism.

Gerrymandering - the process of drawing electoral districts to get the outcome that you want - has long been part of American politics. But it has gotten particularly bad in recent decades, as partisan polarization and the general straying of the Republican Party from democratic norms has triggered a redistricting arms race. Helpful as always, the Supreme Court lifted one of the few remaining restrictions on the practice in a 2019 case, meaning that things are only likely to get worse.

And get worse they have, particularly in Texas. There, the GOP-controlled legislature is trying to carry out an extraordinary round of gerrymandering which would allow Republicans to squeeze five more seats out of the state in the 2026 midterms. With Trump’s approval ratings cratering and Democrats on course to win the House, Texas Republicans would rather engage in blatantly anti-democratic shenanigans than lose.

The reason that this round of gerrymandering is particularly egregious is because of when it is taking place. Under the constitution, redistricting occurs once every ten years, immediately after the census. The idea is that the census provides the most up to date population count with which to redraw House districts, allowing for the best representation of the people. But the process has long been hijacked by state governments who use it as an opportunity to favor whichever party is in power.

The last census and redistricting round was in 2020/1, and for Texas Republicans to try to be redistricting again now - seemingly just because they’re worried about how their party will perform next year in the midterms - is, as we quaintly used to say when things like this seemed to matter, a massive norm violation.

Texas is a huge state with a big Congressional delegation, so this really matters for national politics - control of the House could literally hinge on whether this gerrymander is successful or not. As things stand, Texas isn’t actually that gerrymandered compared to some Republican states. In 2024, the GOP won 58% of the vote but got 65% of the House seats - not great, but not nearly as bad as North Carolina, where Republicans only got 52% of the vote but won 10 of 14 House seats. This gerrymander would put Texas more in North Carolina territory.

Even more remarkable has been the political theater that has ensued as Democrats try to block the gerrymander from going ahead. The Texas legislature requires a quorum to get anything done, which means that a certain number of delegates have to be present. If lawmakers refuse to turn up to create a quorum, then state police can track them down and haul them into the chamber. To prevent this from happening, dozens of Texas Democrats have fled the state and holed up in undisclosed locations around the country, with many of them hiding out in Chicagoland.

In response, Texas Governor Greg Abbott - who, as a potential 2028 presidential contender, is loving the attention - has called on the Trump regime to use the FBI to track the lawmakers down and bring them back to the Lone Star State. He’s also initiated legal proceedings to try to kick them out of their offices and replace them with Republicans who would then vote for his anti-democratic gerrymander.

To be clear, all of this is some banana republic shit. It’s an example of what happens when the guardrails come off completely and politics just becomes a war for partisan advantage, with nothing mattering except who can bludgeon the other side into submission.

And it puts the Democrats in a bind. Many blue and purple states have created non-partisan or bipartisan commissions to carry out redistricting, as a way of preventing gerrymandering from happening in their states. But if Democrats stay the good guys while Republicans gerrymander the night away, they’re going to be left losing every election.

So no surprise that some Democratic states, particularly California - whose governor, Gavin Newsom, is also a 2028 contender and is also loving the attention - have threatened to carry out more extreme gerrymanders if Texas goes ahead with its own.

But even if Democrats in other states manage to cancel Texas’s move out, the result is going to be a less democratic country overall. Fewer Americans will be voting in truly competitive elections, and fewer will have any reason to have engage in the political process. It’s another way in which the race to the political bottom corrodes institutions and trust on all sides, with no telling where the whole thing might end.

Thanks for reading America Explained! Paid subscriptions are what keeps this newsletter a going concern, so please upgrade if you’re able to spare a few dollars or euros or whatever (I’m not picky!) a month to support independent journalism.