Round-up: Tariffs delayed again. Trump slaps down Taiwan. Harris 2028?

Analysis of the week's events

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Tariffs delayed… again

Today was the deadline that Trump set for dozens of foreign nations to reach trade agreements (actually, more like outline frameworks) with the United States or face dramatically higher tariffs.

And, once again, he has backed off from imposing the tariffs.

Earlier today, Trump announced that the tariffs will actually come into effect next Thursday, but that they will in many cases be higher than he previously announced. So far as I can figure out - and these announcements are so chaotic it’s often hard to be sure what is happening - the only country to face higher tariffs as of today is Canada.

Stock markets seem to be tumbling in Asia and Europe after Trump’s announcement, although as I write this they’re not open yet in New York. But should anyone really be worried? After all, Trump seems to have chickened out once again. Couldn’t this just be a crude attempt to turn up the heat and get deals over the line?

I think there’s a strong possibility that this is the case. Trump’s latest executive order also includes a loophole which exempts any goods already in transit and which will arrive before October 5th. So even if he does impose the new rates next Thursday, it would take a while for this to filter through - although the uncertainty will be bad for business anyway.

Tanking stock markets would provide another reason for Trump to back off. My working assumption with this White House is that there isn’t some grand plan, and they’re mostly making it up as they go along. So it may be that even Trump doesn’t really know what he’s going to do next week, and he’ll decide after seeing how it plays on the markets over the coming days.

It’s also possible that if the market reaction isn’t too strong, Trump might decide that he can go through with imposing these higher tariffs without too much blowback.

One thing is for sure - this perpetual “will he, won’t he” focuses global attention on Trump like nothing else, and that’s something that he loves.

Trump slaps down Taiwan

I’ve been writing a lot recently about how Trump is bending over backwards to appease Beijing in order to salvage his disastrous trade policy. Now he’s even slapping down Taiwan in an attempt to ingratiate himself with Xi Jinping.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te was due to be in the United States next month, making brief stops in New York City and Dallas on the way to Latin America. But now the White House has told him not to bother.

Beijing, of course, is famously touchy about any country engaging in diplomatic contacts with the government of Taiwan, which it considers a rogue breakaway province. They wouldn’t have been happy with Taiwan’s leader meeting with American officials or even making an official stop on American soil, even though this is something that has happened many times in the past - including in the first Trump administration:

Matthew Pottinger, who was the longest-serving deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, criticized the apparent decision by American officials to “bend over backwards” in the face of Chinese objections to transit stops by the Taiwanese leader. He noted that such visits were common during the first Trump term — he himself had met with the Taiwanese president on a visit to New York — and during the Biden administration.

“Beijing will pocket this concession and ask for more,” Mr. Pottinger said.

This is another example of how Trump is no China hawk - he’s myopically focused on a trade agreement that will reflect his misunderstanding of how global trade really works, and he’s scrambling to make concessions to Beijing on order to get one.

If a Democrat was doing this, Republicans would be outraged. Instead, we hear crickets.

Trump also isn’t sparing Taiwan from his new tariffs. After his executive order today, he’s threatening it with a 20% tariff rate - despite the fact that Taiwan’s economy needs to remain strong so that it can invest in much-needed military modernization programs.

It’s another way in which Trump’s reputation as a China hawk is undeserved.

Harris 2028?

Kamala Harris announced this week that she won’t be running for governor of California next year, when current Governor Gavin Newsom’s term will be up. And that decision is leading to some speculation: is she angling to run for president in 2028?

If she is, I think that would be a really bad idea.