Round-up: The Trump regime emerges. Iran-Israel war. And isn't that enough?

Your analysis of the week's descent into madness

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The Trump regime emerges

They say a week is a long time in politics. It’s also a long time in an unfolding authoritarian takeover.

And unless the direction of events changes, that’s what we’re witnessing here.

Consider what has happened in California in the last few days. Firstly, Trump sent the military onto its streets with no provocation. Troops have been used in domestic scenarios before, but never like this - never based on a non-existent pretext.

Secondly, the White House and its allied media outlets essentially declared war on California, describing it as enemy territory and its population as foreign invaders. As the U.S. military and other federal security forces were arriving in Los Angeles, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the city is going to be “liberated” from its leadership.

Thirdly, when one of California’s U.S. senators, Alex Padilla, tried to question Noem at a press conference, he was roughed up, marched from the room, pinned to the floor, and handcuffed. Yes, that’s right - one of the senior legislators from the state that Noem says the military is “liberating” from its leadership was pushed around and handcuffed by federal security forces.

Oh, and fourthly, Trump has personally threatened to have the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, arrested.

After this week, I’m no longer calling it the Trump administration. I’m calling it the Trump regime. And that regime has a few characteristics which we need to take note of.

A protester is arrested in LA. Picture courtesy of Mike Lebow

The first is that it is completely intolerant of dissent. Even to ask questions of it is to be guilty of an offence and subject to punishment. It wants you to view the world a certain way, and if you don’t, then you will be smacked down. Media outlets, universities, opposition politicians - all must be forced to toe the line by the force of the state.

The second characteristic is its grip on the coercive apparatus of that state. Trump has put his cronies in charge of the FBI, DHS, DOJ, ICE, the military - any federal organization with guns. He has moved to dissolve their internal checks and balances. The point of this is not just to be able to deploy this force against dissenters and other governing entities, like states and cities. It’s also to ensure that whatever abuses of power his own forces engage in, there is nobody to stop them - no criminal investigations or watchdog probes.

The third characteristic is a complete disregard for the constitution. In the United States, the executive is supposed to be just one of three co-equal branches of government. But the Trump regime has no time for the authority of judges or Congress. Congresspeople can be arrested and roughed up, and judges disregarded. Behind it all is the constant drumbeat of threats of violence from Trump supporters - violence that the administration will likely do nothing to constrain.

The fourth characteristic - and what is shaping up to be one of the biggest battles the regime will engage in - is a war on the states. What is happening in California is not just about immigration - it’s also a war against state sovereignty.

That’s important not only because this is about the ability of states to govern themselves without suffering federal invasion, but also because the states control some of the few security forces and criminal justice systems that Trump cannot easily bring to heel. It’s not impossible to imagine physical clashes between state and federal forces as the regime’s plans unfold, which is one reason it might be appropriate to talk of a civil war.

The fifth characteristic of the Trump regime is that it is engaged in an extremely aggressive version of the culture war. It wants to impose its own values - which are only supported by a minority of the population - on everyone else. It doesn’t matter that immigrants are an integral part of the life of Southern California, woven into the fabric of the region and overwhelmingly supported by the people there. The Trump regime will impose its will regardless.

I admit that part of this picture is based on projecting current trend lines into the future. But the scary thing is that this really is only part of it. Most of these things are happening right now, or are heavily hinted at in the administration’s rhetoric and the rhetoric of of its allied media mouthpieces. And at this point, why should we give them the benefit of the doubt?

Tomorrow, No Kings Day, when protests are expected across thousands of cities and towns, is now crucial. It’s crucial both to show the regime that the people reject what is happening, and also crucial because it could lead to a spiral of escalation and violence if the regime reacts with force, as Trump has threatened.

Things are moving quickly. And that may be better than the frog being boiled slowly, because it is more likely to provoke a reaction. But it also means entering a period of extreme risk, both for the people on the streets and for the future of the republic.

Iran-Israel war breaks out

As if that wasn’t enough, it looks like the Big One is finally here - an all-out war between Israel and Iran.

Overnight, Israel launched a series of devastating strikes on Iran, decapitating much of its military leadership. The damage that it has done to the Iranian nuclear program, the ostensible goal of the strikes, is currently unclear. As I write this, Iran has announced there will be “no limits” to its retaliation and launched an initial counter-attack which is currently en route to Israel.

There is enormous uncertainty about what lies ahead, mostly because Iranian, American and Israeli intentions and capabilities are unknown. Is Iran even capable of a strong counter-attack against Israel? Will it strike U.S. military bases and assets as well as Israel? What will the Trump regime do?

Let’s start with that last question. Trump didn’t want this, and the fact that it has happened is a significant embarrassment for him. And in that embarrassment there is danger for the world.