Shock swing state win for Democrats

But the party shouldn't get complacent

Thanks for reading America Explained. If you haven’t already, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription. This will enable you to read all of this post and access the full archive. It will also enable me to put more time and energy into this newsletter, something that I’m hoping to do in order to cover the new administration more thoroughly. If you’re already a paid subscriber, thanks for supporting independent media and making it possible to do what I do.

For all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the Democratic Party since last November’s defeat, Democrats have been performing well in under-the-radar special elections over the past few months. The latest major upset has come in Pennsylvania, where Democrat James Malone beat out Republican Josh Parsons to win a seat in the state senate.

If that doesn’t sound too exciting, then consider this. District 36, where the election took place, has been in Republican hands since the 1970s. It voted for Trump by about 15% last year, and Democrats didn’t even bother contesting the senate seat in 2022. Malone’s margin of victory was small - less than 1% - but it still amounts to a 15% swing towards Democrats in a major swing state. (If you want to know more about the electoral politics of Pennsylvania, I wrote this explainer in the run-up to the election last year).

District 36 covers the suburbs of the city of Lancaster and a rural/exurban sprawl further north and east

This is unambiguously good news. But exactly how good?

On the plus side, the swing suggests that the Democrats’ damaged national brand is not completely ruining the party at the grassroots level. The party’s favorability rating is at a record low, but that hasn’t stopping it from winning elections. At least on the strength of this result, Democratic voters seem much more motivated than their Republican counterparts to turn out and vote right now. Republicans have a 23% voter registration advantage in this district and they still lost it, suggesting high levels of enthusiasm for the blue team and low levels for the red.

If we had to hazard a guess why this is the case, the controversies and scandals of Trump’s first few months in office seem as good of a place as any to look. Democratic voters are fired up about DOGE and Elon Musk, so much so that they’re hammering on the doors of Democratic members of Congress to tell them to do more to stop the billionaire.

Grassroots disgust at what Democrats see as the indecision and spinelessness of elected party members in opposing Trump probably accounts for a large chunk of the drop in favorability the party has experienced. But when push comes to shove, those voters don’t really have anywhere to go, and they’re still turning out to vote for the Democrats.

On the other hand, there are some good reasons for thinking that these early successes won’t necessarily translate into more important wins later on.