Swing state guides: Nevada

Has early voting here doomed the Dems?

Between now and election day, I’m going to be publishing swing state guides roughly once a week. The posts are designed to be digestible guides to understanding the political geography and demographics of each swing state, and I guarantee that they’ll make you the most informed person at your watch party on election night.

Most swing state guides are and will only be available to paid subscribers. But between now and election day, there’s a 15% discount to all annual subscriptions - so sign up now to lock in a low price and be able to access all of the guides between now and the election. You can also check out the guide to Arizona, guide to North Carolina (free to read), guide to Nebraska’s 2nd district (free to read), guide to Georgia, guide to Michigan, and guide to Wisconsin. The guide to all-important Pennsylvania is coming up next Tuesday.

Nevada is a small state, with only six Electoral College votes. But it still matters - in some scenarios, it could end up being the difference between defeat and victory for the two sides. It’s also a state that is hard to predict - it has an ever-changing population and a particular sensitivity to national economic trends due to relying heavily on consumer-oriented service industries (by which I mean, gambling). After being reliably Republican for a long time, it first broke for the Democrats in 2008, and has done so in every election since. But the polls this year show a very tight race, and Democratic anxieties have been spiking after the state’s early vote has seemed to break for Republicans (more on that later).

Another characteristic of Nevada is that about 90% of its population are resident in two counties, Clark and Washoe. Clark contains Las Vegas and Henderson, and Washoe contains Reno. This concentration of population makes writing this guide, and interpreting the result on election night, pretty easy.

But that doesn’t mean that this state is boring. Its demographics - about 50% white and about 30% Hispanic - mean that it will also be watched closely for what it might tell us about national voting trends within these groups. Like Arizona, Nevada has been growing - and diversifying - quickly. This creates a situation which is quite hard to poll, with pollsters not necessarily able to reach transient populations or the recently-arrived. It also makes Nevada a good test of “demographics is destiny” arguments: does increased diversity mean easier Democratic wins, or are we seeing racial depolarization?