The Democratic comeback takes shape

Recent polls show a lot of reason for optimism

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Donald Trump’s approval rating is low, with only 44% liking the job he is doing as president according to an average of recent polls. But how are the Democrats doing?

The answer is not great, but also not horribly, especially for this point in the election cycle.

Much has been made of recent polling results showing that the Democratic Party is polling lower favorability numbers than it has in 35 years. The party’s brand seems to be in the toilet, with only a third of voters having a positive view of it versus two-thirds who don’t.

That’s not great news for the Democrats, but if you dig a little deeper, it doesn’t look so bad, for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, a lot of dissatisfaction with Democrats is coming from supporters of the party - and those people still intend to vote for it in the midterm elections. The same polling that is showing Democrats at a low point in terms of favorability also shows that if the midterms were held today, the party would beat the GOP by about 3% - which would be enough to regain their House majority (this poll of voting intentions is called the “generic Congressional ballot”).

I don’t think it’s too difficult to figure out what is going on here. The Democratic Party has just come off a crushing defeat. Partisans are incredibly fired up and want to see the party doing everything it can to resist Trump, but instead it is essentially leaderless.

Trump’s very rapid attacks on the rule of law and the constitution are putting a premium on quick action rather than the sort of soul-searching that a party usually goes through following defeat. That’s a recipe for disillusionment among the base, and so they’ll tell pollsters they don’t approve of the Democratic Party. But they’re hardly going to sit the next election out - or switch to the GOP.

Secondly, the Democratic Party is in pretty good shape among political independents - actually beating the GOP. If almost all of those disillusioned Democrats come home and independents lean left, then that’s a recipe for success. And that’s exactly what they intend to do, according to the generic Congressional ballot.

A related reason for optimism is that the polls also show that the coalition which elected Trump has pretty much collapsed.