America has suffered its first casualties in the war in the Middle East. This subscribers-only post unpacks the consequences. Read with a subscription or a free trial.
The United States has dramatically escalated its involvement in the war in the Middle East this week. After months of deflecting Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. warships in the Red Sea, the Biden administration went on the offensive and launched several waves of strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The U.S. also suffered its first casualties of the conflict when two Navy SEALs were lost at sea during an operation to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles bound for Yemen on a small ship.
The decision to go on the offensive against the Houthis was inevitable. The Yemen-based group says that it will continue its attacks on shipping until Israel stops its offensive in Gaza. The U.S. has been passively parrying its strikes for weeks, but this defensive posture was risky. If a missile defense system fails and a ship is hit, dozens of lives could be lost. This would be a tragedy in itself and also create political pressure for a massive U.S. response, even perhaps against the Houthis’ patrons in Iran.
On top of that, the continued disruption to shipping is causing global economic damage. It’s also unsustainably expensive to shoot down a $2,500 drone with a $1m missile, as Responsible Statecraft explains:
According to the Department of Defense, the Houthis have conducted 100 drone and ballistic missile attacks since Oct. 7, targeting cargo vessels involving more than 35 flags from different nations in the Red Sea, including U.S Navy destroyers. Most have been intercepted, though some have hit their targets, causing minor injuries and damage. But with the hijacking of one ship, plus the major disruptions to shipping (the Houthis are blocking an estimated $10 billion in cargo a day) and resulting price hikes, the situation has put security in the region on high alert.
It is also costing the United States a pretty penny to act as the key defender of these predominant global shipping lanes. Each munition used to shoot down the Houthi missiles and drones costs between $1 million and $4.3 million and the ships cannot reload at sea and will have to return to port — perhaps Djibouti? — to reload if the kinetic activity goes on much longer, according to experts that talked to Responsible Statecraft this week.
After launching several waves of strikes against pre-planned targets, the U.S. shifted to an even more aggressive posture on Wednesday by hitting Houthi missile units as they were preparing to launch. The intent in this new phase of the conflict seems to be to try to degrade the Houthi ability to launch missiles rather than passively deflecting them once they’re in the air. The Biden administration is hoping that this will allow shipping to resume and reduce the costs and risks associated with protecting it. They are also hoping that striking the Houthis will help scare Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned groups into avoiding escalation of their own.
But this new approach carries all sorts of risks - if it didn’t, the U.S. would likely have begun striking the Houthis directly months ago.
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