Trump shooter: what to know

And what will the electoral consequences be?

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Yesterday, it appears that there was another assassination attempt against Donald Trump. Here’s what we know on Monday morning:

1. The suspect is Ryan Wesley Routh, a man in his late 50s who lives in Hawaii and has previously spent a lot of time living in North Carolina. It’s unclear where he’s from.

2. Routh hung a GoPro camera on the fence of Trump’s golf club in Florida to record what he was doing, then pushed a rifle through the fence. At this point, the Secret Service fired on him, and he fled. They later caught him. It’s not clear at this point if Routh got off any shots.

3. Trump was about 300 - 500 meters away at the time, two holes back on the golf course. The Secret Service encountered Routh as they were sweeping a hole in preparation for Trump to come play it. It’s not clear if Routh had line of sight on Trump or for how long.

4. Routh has a long criminal history. He’s been charged with 100 criminal counts in North Carolina, including “possession of a weapon of mass destruction” (a fully automatic machine gun), resisting arrest, hit and run, and a concealed weapons offence. He once barricaded himself in a building while resisting arrest.

5. A brief digression: In Britain, you’d go to prison for a minimum of five years for having an unlicensed firearm. Routh has had a host of offences and encounters with law enforcement to do with guns and explosives. Yet he was still walking the streets because the United States is ridiculously tolerant of firepower in the hands of its citizens. That a man like this can get his hands on a high-powered rifle and be in public with it is not something society should tolerate.

6. Routh’s politics seems ill-defined and turbulent. He supported Trump in 2016 but then became disillusioned with him and called him “retarded”. He then advocated for figures as diverse Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tulsi Gabbard. This year, he voted in the North Carolina Democratic primary and gave a small donation to ActBlue, a Democratic group.

   

   Pictures of the scene of the alleged shooting shared by law enforcement.

7. If there is one cause that seems to have really animated Routh, it’s Ukraine. He repeatedly voiced support for Kyiv and hatred of Vladimir Putin on social media, and appears to have traveled to Ukraine shortly after the invasion. He was interviewed by The New York Times about his desire to help foreigners go to Ukraine to fight against Russia. He also seems to have misrepresented himself as having ties to Ukraine and its International Legion, posing as a recruiter and drawing the adverse attention of veterans.

8. Trump, of course, declined during the recent presidential debate to say that he wanted Ukraine to win the conflict. It’s unclear if this played a role in Routh’s actions, but in an interview his son seemed to suggest that his father had a deep animus towards Trump over the issue: “Meanwhile [while there’s a war in Ukraine], this guy’s sitting behind his f**king desk, not doing a goddamn thing.”

9. What might the impact on the election be? Of course, we’ve seen this story before, just a few months ago. That time around, the story so quickly got overwhelmed by the story of Biden leaving the race that it doesn’t seem to have had much impact. And this time around was less dramatic, with Trump not actually being shot or - it appears - even that near the would-be assassin.

10. But this news cycle might be longer. It’s somewhat unclear what that means for Trump. It could be a reminder of the chaos and hatred which he inspires and which many Americans are tired of. But it could also have a rallying effect, motivating his base and winning over some swing voters who end up blaming it on Democrats or the left.

11. You also need to look at the news cycles which this will displace. Harris was enjoying a post-debate bounce, with some polls showing her lead growing to 5% and the Taylor Swift endorsement seeming to drive a huge surge in youth voter registration. At the same time, Trump and Vance were trying to shift attention away from Trump’s disastrous debate performance by pushing their absurd racist lies about Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, which was inspiring violence and threats of violence of its own. As horrific as that news cycle was, Trump and Vance thought it was good for them, whereas Democrats thought it was bad. Either way, this story probably isn’t going away - Trump reportedly plans to visit Springfield later this week.

12. My overall verdict is that the impact of this on the election will probably be neutral. It exacerbates existing trends without changing anything fundamental. And the election is still almost two months away, meaning that there’s still plenty of time for it to fade from memory.

13. Sadly, given the current tone of the election, we also can’t rule out further acts of violence - against Trump, Harris, people of color in Springfield, or someone else. Buckle up - it ain’t over yet.

14. … A final point. There ought to be no place for violence in politics. Attempts on Trump’s life are reprehensible. They also shouldn’t obscure the fact that he is the chief proponent and inspirer of violence in American politics today, as his recent refusal to condemn bomb threats against Haitians in Springfield attests. He ought to be drummed out of American political life forever - through the ballot box and (when he refuses to go quietly) the courts. End of story.