When Nikki Haley suspended her campaign earlier this month, she declined to endorse Donald Trump. Instead, she said, he had to “earn” her support, along with that of her voters. This matters because although Trump has been running up large tallies in rural and conservative districts during the Republican primaries, he’s been struggling with the sort of voters who tend to swing general elections. The failure to get those voters to come back to him is one of the main ways that Trump could lose to Joe Biden later this year.
Gaming out what might happen here is difficult, because modern American elections are so close that their outcome is decided by a tiny set of swing voters. One source of comfort for Trump could be the fact that in 2016 he also faced a lot of opposition in the primary, but by November most of these skeptical Republicans turned out for him anyway. But those were different days, before the insurrection and the rape case and the four years of chaotic governance. The ability of Trump to repel swing voters has been a permanent feature of American politics ever since 2016, accounting for big setbacks for the GOP in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Given this trend, let’s assume for the sake of the argument that a large portion of Haley voters have general and serious doubts about Trump rather than just a mild preference for Haley. What factors are going to influence their decision?
Whether or not Haley eventually endorses Trump seems like an important one. In 2016, the rallying of Republicans behind Trump was greatly aided by the fact that the Republican Party establishment all fell in line behind him too. Marco Rubio went from calling Trump “an embarrassment” and a “con artist” in the winter to bending his knee by May. Many other prominent voices in the Republican Party also dismissed and condemned Trump in early 2016 before deciding to support him after all. One of them was Nikki Haley.
Haley could greatly aid the anti-Trump cause if she would make a different decision this time. Endorsing the former president would give her supporters a strong excuse - maybe even a reason - to change their own minds. By contrast, refusing to do so would send a powerful message precisely because it has become the road less travelled - hell, barely ever travelled - in Republican politics in the Trump era. To understand why, you have to think hard about what endorsements actually are.
It’s tempting to think of an endorsement as a statement of preference - one person wants another person to get elected. In reality, they’re more like investments in the political future. Rubio and the others moved from opposing to embracing Trump in 2016 because they had come to believe that he represented the future of the Republican Party, and that if they wanted any part in that future then they needed to get with the program. For Haley to make the same calculation now, so soon after voicing a scathing and accurate denunciation of Trump’s character and abilities, would be enormously demoralizing. Why? Because it would at heart be an acknowledgement of Trump’s enduring political power, and the futility of resistance.
Alternatively, a decision not to endorse Trump could have a rallying effect on anti-Trump forces. It would show that someone, somewhere still has faith that Trump will eventually pass from the scene and that there will be a post-Trump Republican Party. It would be a vote of confidence in an alternative future, and give Haley voters something worth fighting for.
That been said, there are limits to what we can reasonably expect Haley to do. It’s almost inconceivable that she would campaign against Trump, or return to the airwaves to voice her critiques of him as the general election draws closer. Probably the most that can be expected is a refusal to endorse followed by a kind of passive resistance. Actively campaigning against your party’s nominee pretty much amounts to a death sentence in the politics of that party. Haley remains a young and ambitious politician who is almost definitely not ready to throw in the towel on her career - although, given the stakes for the country, it would be worth it.
Another thing that might influence Haley voters in November is what the political scientists call “negative partisanship”. Put simply, Haley voters might decide that they hate Biden more than they hate Trump - then hold their noses and vote for the latter. This is where I think that Biden’s record and political style give him an advantage, because he’s nobody’s idea of a radically dangerous threat to the fabric of the nation. He doesn’t inspire the same sort of visceral hatred that Hillary Clinton did, and his stewardship of the country has been fairly placid. His biggest weakness - his age and questions about his mental competence - are problems that Trump more or less shares.
It’s important, though, that Biden not make any major move or mistake that would tend to push this group of voters back towards Trump. That seems to be how he has decided to campaign anyway, for instance by adopting an immigration policy that is not that distinguishable from Trump’s. Biden’s problem here is the same one that he has to deal with anyway - how to get swing voters to vote for him. It’s not clear he’s got a good enough answer to that question, but if he doesn’t then he’s sunk anyway.
Finally, there’s a chance that Haley voters will opt for neither Biden or Trump - and will vote for a third-party candidate like Robert Kennedy, Jr. instead. Both Democrats and Republicans are freaking out about RFK, and his weird cross-coalition appeal makes the effect of his candidacy hard to predict. But a third-party candidate seems like a perfect place to go for Republicans who have fallen out of love with their own party but aren’t yet ready to embrace either the Democrats or apathy. In razor-thin swing-state margins, small numbers of voters going third party can have a big impact. If everyone who voted for the Green Party’s Jill Stein in 2016 had voted for Clinton, Clinton would have won the election.
Whatever is going to happen, one thing seems clear: right now Trump is making absolutely no effort to win back Haley voters and is instead engaged in a fire and brimstone appeal to his base. Now he’s locked down the primary, he could easily make some vague gestures to the political center in order to try to assuage Haley and her supporters. The fact he doesn’t feel like he needs to tells you something about the scorched earth approach that he’s likely to take to the coming election. Whether that turns out to be a really bad decision or not remains to be seen.