What Trump really wants in Ukraine

Divisions among his advisors, Europe's disaster, and more

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Talks begin today between the United States and Russia over an agreement to pause or end the fighting in Ukraine. Here are 11 thoughts on where we’re at:

1. It’s worth reflecting on what didn’t happen: the Trump administration did not immediately stop sending aid to Ukraine and force Kyiv to settle immediately. Trump clearly wants to avoid the kind of chaotic scenes that we saw when Joe Biden pulled the U.S. out of Afghanistan in 2021. This was viewed as an embarrassment for the U.S. and also was a political blow from which Biden never recovered. While his sympathies clearly lie with Russia rather than Ukraine, Trump hates above all else looking weak, and he won’t want to see something like this happen on his watch.

   

   Joe Biden’s approval ratings collapsed during the fall of Kabul. This is what Trump wants to avoid

2. Trump’s goal instead seems to be a deal that (a) allows him to claim to be a genius peacemaker; (b) enables U.S. disengagement from the conflict and (c) avoids embarrassing geopolitical disturbances. Beyond this, he likely does not have detailed preferences about many of the issues that will actually form the substance of the peace talks: future security guarantees, territorial swaps, etc.

3. Russia, on the other hand, is returning to the playbook that it drew from at the beginning of the war in 2022. It is attempting to link a settlement in Ukraine to a broader discussion about European security. Moscow will likely try to push the U.S. to weaken NATO, for instance by withdrawing troops from Eastern Europe and by recognizing a formal place for Moscow in the continent’s security architecture. This is a probe to see how far the Trump administration will go, and how serious it is about its rhetoric of leaving the Europeans to look after themselves. European diplomats are worried that Trump will actually concede some of these points, but that’s an open question right now.

4. When it comes to Ukraine itself, Russian demands are fairly simple - an end to sanctions, the recognition of at least de facto Russian control over captured parts of Ukraine, and no future for Ukraine in NATO. Trump seems broadly in sympathy with these goals, but there are still some devils lurking in the details. For instance, will Ukrainian NATO membership be ruled out indefinitely, or just as part of this agreement? What exactly will that recognition consist of, and will it differentiate between Crimea and other areas?

5. The Trump administration has made some contradictory noises about these issues, which likely reflects the fact that different figures within it have different opinions and Trump has not issued definitive guidance. Trump’s limited policy knowledge makes him susceptible to manipulation by his foreign policy team. What we are witnessing now is the shaking out of competing camps within the administration who hope to end up being the last people that Trump talks to before he makes the big calls.

6. The shape of those camps is not yet entirely clear, but we can say a few things. The person whose star is highest right now is clearly Steve Witkoff, a longterm friend of Trump who has become his personal envoy. Trump sees billionaire businessmen like Witkoff as true peers and trusts them far more than career politicians or foreign policy experts. As one White House official put it, “game respects game."

7. But others are in the mix too. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are traditional hawks who could be expected to push for fewer concessions to Russia and a greater long-term commitment to NATO. But Rubio especially is a person who wants a future in the MAGA-fied Republican Party - perhaps to even be president one day - and they can only push against Trump so far. Both also view China as a far greater threat than Russia - although, as I wrote in this piece with Martijn van Ette a few weeks ago, the only sustainable way to pivot to Asia is by making sure the settlement in Ukraine is sustainable and not just an invitation for Russia to come back for another bite of the apple.

8. I suspect Witkoff might run into trouble and end up relying on some more experienced foreign policy hands. What those people think will be very important. But who will they be? It’s impossible to say right now.

9. A lot is being made of the absence of Ukraine and European countries from the opening talks in Saudi Arabia. I suspect that what happens in Saudi Arabia will mostly be talks about talks, with the aim of deciding on the process going forward. This should give us some more clarity about whether and how other countries will be included in the talks.

10. Whatever the decision, I don’t think either Kyiv or European capitals should be under any illusion - they might be in the room, but they won’t be getting a vote. The Trump administration has made it pretty clear that it views Russia as the key interlocutor here. Trump has taken an aggressive spheres-of-influence approach in his second term, one in which strong countries do what they wish and weak countries suffer what they must. So far as Trump is concerned, this is the Big Boys’ Club - and only him, Putin and maybe Xi Jinping are in it.

11. This American outlook alone is a disaster for Europe, realizing long-held fears of superpowers slicing up the continent without regard for the people caught in the way of the carving knife. If Europe wants to be in the Big Boys’ Club too, it’s time to develop the military and economic capabilities which will allow it to be. In fact, the time was 15 years ago.

Thanks for reading America Explained. This post is free. If you haven’t already, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription, which allows you to read every post and access the full archive. It also enables me to put more time and energy into this newsletter, something that I’m hoping to do in order to cover the new administration more thoroughly. If you’re already a paid subscriber, thanks for supporting independent media and making it possible to do what I do.

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