What would a Middle East "regional war" look like?

It wouldn't be any more "regional", just much worse - and U.S.-centric

This post is about the very real potential for escalation in the Middle East, what that would look like, and how it would likely lead to a major military intervention by the United States, upending the presidential race. The post is paywalled and I hope you’ll consider upgrading to paid in order to support America Explained. This enables me to keep producing content, including the free posts for those who aren’t able to pay right now.

As negotiators gather again to try to reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement, there is a specter looming over them: the threat of what is often called a Middle East “regional war”. But is that term useful?

Arguably not, because there has already been a “regional war” going on in the Middle East since last October. Israel is fighting or has attacked Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Syria, and Iran. Iran has attacked Israel and, via its allied non-state actors, the United States. The United States has attacked the Houthis and other Iranian allied non-state actors, who in turn have attacked U.S. troops in Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. off the coast of Yemen, the Houthis have randomly attacked regional commercial shipping. When Iran attacked Israel directly in April, the latter was defended by a coalition including the United States, France, Britain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Finally, Israel and Egypt have exchanged hostile fire over the Gaza-Egyptian border, killing an Egyptian soldier. (Let me know in the comments if I forgot something; I probably did).

In fact, if you look at a map of the Middle East, it’s easier just to list the countries that haven’t already been directly involved in the fighting in some way. So how exactly would a “regional war” be any different?

It’s a trick question, because what would be different about renewed escalation of the conflict is not that it would suddenly become more “regional”. It’s that it would dramatically increase in intensity, and that it would much more centrally involve the United States.

When people talk about a “regional war”, what they’re actually talking about is the following: