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The world woke up today to a new war in the Middle East, one unlike any we’ve seen before. Hamas has launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, infiltrating the country and taking control of border communities and seemingly even a military base. Videos of Palestinian gunmen roaming throughout Israeli villages and murdering civilians are circulating on social media. As I write this, Hamas seems to remain in control of a number of Israeli settlements and to be holding hostages there. The group has also taken dozens of Israelis back into Gaza. The Israeli Defense Forces are pummelling the coastal strip with airstrikes, but the focus of their ground forces seems to be on retaking Israeli territory - a process which, as we’ve seen in Ukraine, could take a long time and involve significant civilian casualties.
It’s hard to overstate how unprecedented this event is, or how profoundly it will reshape the politics of the Middle East. The scale of the intelligence and military failures by the Israeli security establishment appears to be vast, and there is likely to be an outpouring of enormous anger against the Netanyahu government. For years, Hamas has been seen by the Israeli government as a stabilizing force in Gaza, one which had become so invested in maintaining its own rule that it would shrink away from such a direct challenge to Israel. This idea - which was a predicate for the far-right Israeli government’s belief it could get away with its ever-increasing provocations in the West Bank - has now been completely shattered. It seems inevitable that the Netanyahu government will now seek to overthrow Hamas and perhaps even fully reoccupy Gaza.
There is also a regional dimension to this crisis, and it’s one which could end up sucking the U.S. into the conflict. The main patron of Hamas is Iran, a country which provides it with military technology, training and funding. Hamas’ assault appears to have involved advanced tactics and technology which many will argue it could only have obtained from Tehran. Particularly if close Iran ally Hezbollah joins the fight, the Netanyahu government is highly likely to seek to impose some form of accountability on Iran. Within the United States, the early morning tweets this Saturday AM are also betraying a focus on the role of Iran in enabling the conflict - and the need to punish it.
This matters because Israel - particularly Netanyahu - has spent many years planning for conflict with Iran, whether it be over its nuclear program or in response to a day such as this. These plans have often been produced in close coordination with the United States, and such efforts have actually intensified under the Biden administration. This January, Israel and the United States held their largest ever joint military exercise in what was widely understood as a message to Iran. The drills involved a simulated American attack on an Iranian nuclear facility and American refuelling of Israeli long-range jets - precisely the manoeuvre that might be necessary to enable an Israeli attack on Iran. Some Biden officials have also seemed more open to the possibility of Israel striking Iran than previous administrations were.
If Netanyahu chooses to move against Iran, it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to stay out of the conflict. Especially as he heads into an election year, Biden will be under enormous political pressure to provide Israel help with the assault. Early indications are that Republicans don’t intend to hold back, with many already trying to blame Biden for being soft on Iran and allowing an attack on Israel to happen. Biden might not even need political pressure to decide to make a move, given that he is a strongly pro-Israel president who has a long-running, friendly association with Netanyahu.1 The administration might decide just to provide behind-the-scenes help such as aerial refuelling, but even this could easily prove to be the thin end of the wedge - pressure will grow to do more, particularly if Israel is struggling to meet its objectives, and particularly as the GOP rushes to be to the right of wherever Biden is.
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