Dems bounce back with voters of color, win key race

Musk can't deliver the goods - are his days in the White House numbered?

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Yesterday was a mini election day, with pivotal races in swing state Wisconsin and not-really-a-swing-state-anymore Florida. The results were very good for the Democratic Party, and confirm hopes that the public backlash against Donald Trump and Elon Musk is going to translate into pain for Republicans at the ballot box. It might even hasten a split between Trump and Musk.

Here’s why:

1. The biggest Democratic victory of the night was in the race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Democrat Susan Crawford beat Republican Brad Schimel by about 10% in a state that Trump won by about 1% just a few months ago. This ensures a continued a liberal majority on the court, which is due to make big decisions on abortion, voting rights, and gerrymandering.

2. These court races, which a few decades ago would barely have been noticed even within the state in which they were taking place, have become increasingly high-profile in recent years. One reason is that as the number of swing states shrinks, small shifts in state politics can have enormous national stakes.

3. In Wisconsin, those stakes are mostly about gerrymandering. Wisconsin has long been one of the most undemocratic states in the U.S., with absurdly gerrymandered maps for both state and federal elections. Right now the state sends six Republicans and only two Democrats to the House of Representatives even though it splits its votes about 50/50. If the Wisconsin Supreme Court rectifies that injustice, Republicans’ majority in the House would evaporate.

4. The other reason for the intense interest lavished on the race is that it has widely been seen as a sign of how the two parties are faring in the Trump era. Winning elections in swing states is what national electoral politics is all about, and in the era of no-holds-barred, bare-knuckled competition, every race counts.

5. This time around, Musk’s involvement turbo-charged this dynamic. Musk poured tens of millions of dollars into the race, making it the most expensive state court election in U.S. history. In response, Democrats turned the race into a referendum on Musk, asking voters why an out-of-state billionaire was trying to buy an election in their state.

6. And that message seems to have worked. Turnout in the election was exceptionally high - about 40% higher that it was in an equivalent race in 2023 and nearly at midterm levels. That makes it harder to argue that this was just a fluke caused by the fact that Democratic voters tend to be better educated and hence more likely to vote in off-year elections. It looks like the anti-Musk message was extremely galvanizing for a lot of folks.

7. That’s going to be a bitter pill for the White House to swallow. Musk was already unpopular with the public, but this race shows that the resources he can bring to the table don’t outweigh his negatives. Back in November, Musk mostly wasted his money on get-out-the-vote operations which don’t seem to have much impact on the outcome of the election. This time around, he spent more of his money on ads, which can be effective when done right. Despite dropping a cool $20m, his guy still lost.

8. As an added sucker punch, Republicans even lost the county containing the town of Green Bay, which they typically win and which was the only place in Wisconsin that Musk visited in the run-up to the election.

9. It might be too soon to predict the imminent break up of the Trump-Musk bromance. But this performance hardly boosts the case for keeping him around.

10. Another positive sign for Democrats was that they showed renewed signs of life with voters of color. Last year, Trump improved his performance with African American and Hispanic voters by margins that would be game-changing for national elections if future Republicans can keep them up. Much of the reason for this was a collapse in turnout in deep-blue urban cores like Wisconsin’s Milwaukee and Madison. But yesterday, those cities came roaring back, giving Crawford about 10% more of the vote than they gave Harris, and on high turnout for this type of election.

11. This suggests that a message focused on Trump and Musk’s evisceration of public services provides a path back to a strong performance with minority voters. If Trump is really serious about turning the GOP into a multiracial, working-class coalition (hint: he’s not), he’s going about it exactly the wrong way.

12. On the other hand, Crawford didn’t do much better than Harris in suburban Milwaukee, counties that Republicans tend to win but Democrats are increasingly competitive in. This only underlines the fact that the reason Democrats lost Wisconsin last year was poor turnout in the heavily non-white urban cores, and that this is where they have work to do going into 2028.

13. (For a deep dive into the electoral politics of Wisconsin, check out this guide I wrote in the run-up to last year’s election.)

14. Wisconsin wasn’t the only place with action last night. There were also two House special elections in Florida. The two seats concerned are safely red, but Republicans still saw plummeting margins compared to 2024. A few more special elections in less Trumpy districts and they could easily lose their majority in the House before the midterms.

15. A final caveat. All of this is great news for the Democrats. But presidential elections are different - they have much higher turnout, for a start - so while the party should be feeling confident about 2026, it still has a lot of work to do before 2028. And in the meantime, the party still needs to resist Trump and Musk’s unprecedented attack on the American constitutional order. Especially because if the GOP starts losing too many elections, the Trump administration might just extend that attack to the electoral process itself.

    Thanks for reading America Explained. I’m so happy that our paid posts go out to thousands of people around the world. If you’d like to help keep the newsletter afloat and be able to read all of our content, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription. We’re currently ranked as one of the fastest-growing politics newsletters on Substack and just a few more paid subscriptions will do a lot to convince our algorithmic overlords to promote us more. If you’re not able to support us that way right now, I’m still so grateful that you’re here.

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