I'm not sure Romney would be doing better. The realignment of 2016 pulled a lot of non-college whites from the Democratic camp to the Trump camp. But I don't think they're solidly in the Republican camp. See 2022. In a high-inflation period scarred by COVID, the governing party outperformed expectations and fundamentals across the board, because those ancestral Dems didn't turn out for standard Republicans. Because those voters MAGA, not Republican.
The realignments have been asymmetrical. College whites who voted for Romney in 2012 are now voting Dem. They're voting for the party, not the candidate. They may go back, but I think the GOP brand has been deeply tarnished and people are fed up. The Dem coalition will continue to vote Dem, but the same can NOT be said for the GOP-MAGA big tent. It will absolutely fall apart when Trump exits the stage.
Yeah I agree, I guess in this fantasy world I am constructing the realignment of 2016 did not happen. Because that itself was a lot to do with Trump. Of course it was also somewhat to do with how the right reacted to Obama before Trump, so somewhat hard to disentangle.
Totally. My point is just that if Trump loses, I see no world in which the GOP doesn't balkanize and become a pitiful minority party on its back foot in Kansas and Ohio
I'm not sure Romney would be doing better. The realignment of 2016 pulled a lot of non-college whites from the Democratic camp to the Trump camp. But I don't think they're solidly in the Republican camp. See 2022. In a high-inflation period scarred by COVID, the governing party outperformed expectations and fundamentals across the board, because those ancestral Dems didn't turn out for standard Republicans. Because those voters MAGA, not Republican.
The realignments have been asymmetrical. College whites who voted for Romney in 2012 are now voting Dem. They're voting for the party, not the candidate. They may go back, but I think the GOP brand has been deeply tarnished and people are fed up. The Dem coalition will continue to vote Dem, but the same can NOT be said for the GOP-MAGA big tent. It will absolutely fall apart when Trump exits the stage.
Yeah I agree, I guess in this fantasy world I am constructing the realignment of 2016 did not happen. Because that itself was a lot to do with Trump. Of course it was also somewhat to do with how the right reacted to Obama before Trump, so somewhat hard to disentangle.
Totally. My point is just that if Trump loses, I see no world in which the GOP doesn't balkanize and become a pitiful minority party on its back foot in Kansas and Ohio
An Open Letter to Your Friend or Relative Planning to Vote for Trump:
Your Vote for Trump Is an Endorsement of Bigotry, Cruelty, and the Erosion of Rights—No Matter the Reason You Give.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-150725410?r=4d7sow&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web