This is the second of my two posts on the Trump indictment. Read the first one here. If you enjoy America Explained then please subscribe to ensure that you never miss an article and to support my journalism.
Donald Trump currently faces 78 criminal charges (and that doesn’t include several civil trials). The coming political period between now and the 2024 presidential election will be defined by his legal troubles. Trump has handily seen off the threat from Florida governor Ron DeSantis and is polling evenly with Joe Biden, but he could in theory land in jail between now and the election. To get an idea of the scope of the problems he is facing, take a look at his legal calendar:
October 2, 2023: Trial begins in a New York civil suit alleging fraudulent business practices at the Trump Organization
January 15, 2024: Trial begins in a civil suit for defamation bought by the writer E. Jean Carroll. A jury in a previous trial found that Trump raped Carroll.
March 25, 2024: Trial begins in the New York criminal case related to hush money paid to Stormy Daniels.
May 20, 2024: Trial begins in the Mar-a-Lago stolen classified documents case.
TBD: Trial begins in a Georgia criminal trial related to the attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Charges are expected this month.
TBD: Trial begins in the federal criminal trial related to attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The government is seeking a trial held way before the 2024 election.
That’s about one major trial every 2.5 months between now and the presidential election. But it’s also important to realize that a lot remains unclear about this timeline, particularly in the big criminal cases. Trump’s best chance of beating the rap is to win the election and then use his power as president to escape accountability. So he and his legal team will go through hell and high water to delay the beginning of the classified document and 2020 election trials until after the November election. Scheduled trial dates can end up slipping, so it’s possible they might be successful.
The number of different trials means that we face a dizzying array of possible outcomes between now and the next election. In this post I’m going to generalize somewhat and focus on four possible worlds we might live in by November 2024: the trials have finished and Trump is convicted; the trials are still ongoing; the trials have not yet begun; the trials have finished and Trump has been found innocent.
Imagine Trump is found guilty before the election
The prospect of Trump being tried and found guilty before November 2024 might seem like the best possible world we could be living in. A dangerous threat to American democracy would be behind bars and unable to take the reins of government again. In many ways I am strongly biased towards rooting for this outcome.
But it’s also worth considering that it would cause American politics and society to go completely haywire.
This isn’t an argument against doing it. But it’s important to recognize what this path would involve. Trump’s actual trials will be massive and polarizing media circuses in themselves, causing tremendous security problems and raising the possibility of violence. The judge, jurors and lawyers will be subject to threats and intimidation. The problem of choosing and sequestering an impartial jury will be immense. But if Trump is found guilty, the real problems will only just be beginning.
If Trump ends up in federal prison, a significant portion of the country will see it as an act of political persecution. They will claim that the judge and jury in Washington, D.C. are liberal zealots who didn’t give Trump a fair hearing. They will claim that Smith’s entire investigation is politically motivated. When Smith requests jail time for Trump and Trump goes to a federal prison, they will use the special counsel’s strange position in the structure of American government - both part of the administration but not part of it1 - to claim that “the Biden administration” is imprisoning its chief political rival shortly before a crucial presidential election.
It doesn’t matter that none of this is true. Chaos will ensue.
Trump can technically still run for president from prison, and with his fate up in the air pending an inevitable appeal in his case, the RNC is unlikely to go against the party’s base by moving onto another candidate. Republicans in Congress will probably impeach Biden, and violence could sweep through society. The U.S. will hurtle towards a November election unlike any it has ever seen, with one candidate in prison and a huge chunk of the country up in arms. Biden will come under immense pressure to use the power of the presidency to find some way out, perhaps by pardoning Trump in exchange for a pledge that he will leave politics. On the other side of the aisle, equally strong voices will demand that Trump face accountability and point out that the MAGA movement should not be able to get its way through threatening violence and upheaval.
And there might still be two more trials coming in which Trump could face serious jail time!
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